A blunt approach to stop doing what makes things worse and begin to make things better.

The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is a logical fallacy that occurs when someone ignores the differences in data and focuses on the similarities to draw an inaccurate conclusion.

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy Explained to a Six-Year-Old:

Imagine you’re playing a game where you throw a ball at a target, but there’s no bullseye drawn yet. After throwing the ball, draw a bullseye around where the ball landed and say, “I hit the target!”

That’s not fair, right? You’re only pretending to aim because you made the bullseye after throwing the ball.

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy happens when someone picks only the information that makes them look right and ignores everything else. It’s like drawing the target after you throw instead of being honest about what’s true.

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy Explained To An Adult:

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is named after a hypothetical scenario in which a sharpshooter fires a gun at the side of a barn and then paints a target around the bullet holes to make it appear as though they are all clustered precisely around the bullseye. This fallacy highlights a common problem in reasoning and statistics: the tendency to misinterpret or manipulate data to fit a predetermined conclusion.

Key Aspects of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy:

1. Post Hoc Reasoning:

It often involves looking at a set of data after the fact and finding patterns or connections that may not actually exist. In this way, a conclusion is drawn that does not reflect the actual nature of the data.

2. Cherry-Picking Data:

This fallacy can also involve selectively presenting data that supports a specific hypothesis while ignoring data that contradicts it. This can lead to misleading conclusions.

3. False Patterns:

The fallacy demonstrates how people may see patterns in random data, leading to the mistaken belief that those patterns have significance or that they provide a basis for a causal relationship.

4. Confirmation Bias:

The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is closely related to confirmation bias, where individuals favor information that confirms their existing beliefs or hypotheses.

1. Highlighting Only Positive Moments in a Struggling Marriage

• Fallacy: A partner claims their marriage is "perfect" because they focus solely on a few memorable vacations or celebrations, ignoring ongoing conflicts or lack of communication.

• Why: This selectively emphasizes the good times, creating a skewed narrative of the relationship's health.

• Supportive Statement: "While we have shared some wonderful memories, it's important to address the conflicts and areas where we need improvement."

2. Focusing Only on a Child's Successes

Fallacy: A parent insists their child is thriving because of a few high grades or extracurricular achievements, while disregarding signs of stress or social difficulties.

• Why: This cherry-picking overlooks a comprehensive understanding of the child's well-being.

• Supportive Statement: "While I'm proud of your achievements, I also want to make sure you're not feeling overwhelmed or struggling in other areas."

3. Selective Compliments in Parenting

• Fallacy: One parent tells the other they're an "amazing co-parent" because of occasional thoughtful gestures, ignoring consistent disagreements or parenting conflicts.

• Why: It gives an incomplete picture of co-parenting dynamics by focusing only on isolated positives.

• Supportive Statement: "I really appreciate the thoughtful things you do, but I think we should work on how we handle disagreements about discipline."4. Sports Team Performance: A sports analyst claims a particular player is a "clutch performer" because they made several game-winning shots in a few critical games, ignoring the numerous games where they performed poorly.

4. Selective Focus on Financial Contributions

• Fallacy: A spouse argues they are pulling their weight financially because they paid for a few big expenses, while ignoring a lack of contribution to everyday costs or budgeting.

• Why: This fallacy highlights a small portion of contributions to justify an overall claim of fairness.

• Supportive Statement: "Your help with big expenses is valuable, but we need to discuss how we can better share the day-to-day financi6. Environmental Studies: An environmental group highlights one study that shows a specific chemical is harmless while ignoring a multitude of studies that demonstrate its harmful effects.

5. Highlighting Only the Fun in Parenting

• Fallacy: A parent claims they are a great caregiver because they play games with their kids, while ignoring their inconsistency in setting boundaries or following through on responsibilities.

• Why: This creates an incomplete view of parenting by focusing on the enjoyable aspects while neglecting important challenges.

• Supportive Statement: "You're amazing at making playtime fun, and I think we can also work on consistency with routines together."

6. Selective Examples in Conflict Resolution

• Fallacy: A partner says they are great at resolving conflicts because of one or two instances where they apologized but overlooks a pattern of defensiveness or avoidance.

• Why: It presents an unbalanced perspective on conflict management by ignoring recurring behaviors.

• Supportive Statement: "You've handled some disagreements really well, and I'd love for us to focus on making that a consistent pattern."

7. Highlighting Milestones Over Everyday Disconnect

• Fallacy: A couple claims their marriage is strong because of significant milestones, like anniversaries or buying a home, while ignoring daily emotional disconnects.

• Why: This overlooks the ongoing emotional work needed for a healthy relationship.

• Supportive Statement: "Our milestones are meaningful, but I think we should also focus on reconnecting in our day-to-day lives."

8. Focusing on Rare Acts of Kindness

• Fallacy: A family member claims to be very supportive because they helped once in a big way, while consistently failing to be present in smaller, regular ways.

• Why: This exaggerates overall supportiveness based on a few select instances.

• Supportive Statement: "I really appreciated your help with that big event, but I’d love it if you could also be there for smaller moments too."

9. Selective Praise in Sibling Relationships

• Fallacy: A sibling insists they are a great brother/sister because of one grand gesture, while ignoring years of neglect or indifference.

• Why: This cherry-picks a standout moment to overlook a larger pattern of behavior.

• Supportive Statement: "That gesture meant a lot to me, and I’d love to feel more connected to you on a regular basis."

10. Focusing Only on "Highlight Reel" Moments in Family Life

• Fallacy: A family claims they are very close because of a few great holidays, ignoring ongoing estrangement or lack of meaningful communication.

• Why: This fallacy creates a distorted narrative by ignoring everyday struggles or disconnections.

• Supportive Statement: "Those holidays were amazing, and I think we can work on maintaining that closeness in our everyday interactions."

In each of these examples, the Texas sharpshooter fallacy highlights the dangers of selectively presenting data to support a specific conclusion while ignoring the broader context or contrary evidence. This can lead to misleading interpretations and flawed decision-making and can put your marriage and family at risk if it becomes a pattern of dealing with conflictual situations.

To avoid falling into the Texas sharpshooter fallacy, it's important to:

-Seek to learn instead of trying to prove you are right.

- Consider all relevant situations before concluding.

-Be clear about your intentions. Is it to appear correct and win, or is it to address what is occurring?

- Recognize and account for your own possible biases in what you are choosing to base your claim on.

- Use statistical info where possible to evaluate the significance of patterns rather than relying solely on your visual interpretations.

NOTE: A Dumb Argument is hearing but not listening. It lacks accuracy, logic, and reasoning. It ignores evidence and instead relies on fallacies and fear, avoids what is actually occurring, and harms friend, marriage and family

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Stop Dumb Arguments Before You Make Them.—-A blunt approach to stop doing what makes things worse and begin to make things better