A blunt approach to stop doing what makes things worse and begin to make things better.
The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is a logical fallacy that occurs when someone ignores the differences in data and focuses on the similarities to draw an inaccurate conclusion.

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy Explained to a Six-Year-Old:
Imagine you’re playing a game where you throw a ball at a target, but there’s no bullseye drawn yet. After throwing the ball, draw a bullseye around where the ball landed and say, “I hit the target!”
That’s not fair, right? You’re only pretending to aim because you made the bullseye after throwing the ball.
The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy happens when someone picks only the information that makes them look right and ignores everything else. It’s like drawing the target after you throw instead of being honest about what’s true.

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy Explained To An Adult:

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is named after a hypothetical scenario in which a sharpshooter fires a gun at the side of a barn and then paints a target around the bullet holes to make it appear as though they are all clustered precisely around the bullseye. This fallacy highlights a common problem in reasoning and statistics: the tendency to misinterpret or manipulate data to fit a predetermined conclusion.

Key Aspects of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy:

1. Post Hoc Reasoning:

It often involves looking at a set of data after the fact and finding patterns or connections that may not actually exist. In this way, a conclusion is drawn that does not reflect the actual nature of the data.

2. Cherry-Picking Data:

This fallacy can also involve selectively presenting data that supports a specific hypothesis while ignoring data that contradicts it. This can lead to misleading conclusions.

3. False Patterns:

The fallacy demonstrates how people may see patterns in random data, leading to the mistaken belief that those patterns have significance or that they provide a basis for a causal relationship.

4. Confirmation Bias:

The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is closely related to confirmation bias, where individuals favor information that confirms their existing beliefs or hypotheses.

1. Health Benefits of a Supplement: A company advertises a dietary supplement by highlighting a few studies that show significant health benefits while ignoring numerous studies that found no effect or negative outcomes.

This is a Texas sharpshooter fallacy because it cherry-picks favorable data to create a misleading narrative about the supplement's effectiveness.

2. Astrology Predictions: An astrologer points to specific instances where horoscopes accurately predicted personal events for clients, ignoring the many times predictions were inaccurate.

This fallacy occurs here as it focuses on select successful predictions while disregarding the vast majority that were incorrect, creating an illusion of accuracy.

3. Job Performance Statistics: A manager highlights a small group of employees who excelled after a new training program, neglecting the larger number who did not show improvement.

This is misleading because it presents a skewed view of the training's effectiveness by focusing only on a few successes rather than the overall outcome.

4. Sports Team Performance: A sports analyst claims a particular player is a "clutch performer" because they made several game-winning shots in a few critical games, ignoring the numerous games where they performed poorly.

This misrepresentation of the player’s overall performance creates a false narrative based on selective data.

5. Economic Growth Claims: A politician cites a few months of economic growth during their term while ignoring the longer-term trends of economic decline or instability.

This fallacy arises when selective time frames are used to present a misleadingly positive picture of economic performance.

6. Environmental Studies: An environmental group highlights one study that shows a specific chemical is harmless while ignoring a multitude of studies that demonstrate its harmful effects.

This example illustrates the fallacy by focusing on a single piece of data that supports a desired conclusion while disregarding the broader body of evidence.

7. Diet Trends: A nutritionist promotes a new diet by showcasing a few testimonials from individuals who lost weight, while neglecting the majority who did not see significant results.

This selective reporting creates an illusion of effectiveness that is not supported by the overall data.

8. Survey Results: A company promotes a new product by highlighting a small number of positive survey responses while omitting the majority of negative feedback from customers.

This instance exemplifies the fallacy as it presents a distorted view of customer satisfaction by cherry-picking positive data.

9. Crime Statistics: A community leader points to a decrease in crime rates in a specific neighborhood after a new policing strategy while ignoring other areas where crime has increased.

This is a Texas sharpshooter fallacy because it selectively focuses on localized data that supports a narrative while ignoring broader trends.

10. Medical Treatments: A researcher claims a new treatment is effective based on a few patients who showed improvement, ignoring the larger group of patients who experienced no change or worsened conditions.

This fallacy illustrates how focusing on a small sample of data can create an inaccurate portrayal of a treatment's overall effectiveness.

In each of these examples, the Texas sharpshooter fallacy highlights the dangers of selectively presenting data to support a specific conclusion while ignoring the broader context or contrary evidence. This can lead to misleading interpretations and flawed decision-making and can put your marriage and family at risk if it becomes a pattern of dealing with conflictual situations.